Electoral uncertainty and financial volatility: Evidence from two‐round presidential races in emerging markets

We study how the predictability and the decisiveness of electoral outcomes affect financial volatility. We argue that traders’ optimal investment strategies depend on their ability to make accurate electoral forecasts and the prospective losses associated with placing a bet on the wrong candidate. Using a triple difference‐in‐difference approach and data from two‐round presidential elections in five Latin American countries between 1999 and 2018, we find that financial volatility is greatest in the days immediately following unpredictable, decisive, elections. Postelectoral volatility also occurs following predictable, indecisive elections. The effect of learning the identity of the winning candidate on financial volatility is null when the election is unpredictable and indecisive, as well as when the election is decisive, but the outcome is predictable. These findings offer insights into investors seeking to hedge price risk around elections. They also have important implications regarding the relationship between public opinion polls and postelectoral financial volatility.     

Tax-benefit systems and differences in aggregate labour force participation: Comparative evidence from the Czech Republic and Hungary

This paper investigates the extent to which cross-country differences in aggregate participation rates can be explained by differences in tax-benefit systems. We take the example of two countries, the Czech Republic and Hungary, which – despite a lot of similarities – differ markedly in labour force participation rates. Using comparable individual-level labour supply estimates, we simulate how the aggregate participation rate would change in one country if the other country’s tax and social welfare system were adopted. The estimation results for the two countries are quite similar, suggesting that individual preferences are essentially identical in the two countries. The simulation results show that about one-third of the difference in the participation rates of the 15–74 year-old population and more than two-thirds of the participation of the prime-age population can be explained by differences in the tax-benefit systems.     

三种不同蒸馏仪器测定食品中二氧化硫含量的对比

目的:比较传统玻璃蒸馏瓶蒸馏装置、二氧化硫测定仪、自动凯氏定氮仪3种仪器测定食品中二氧化硫的效果及适用性,为设备选型提供参考.方法:选取番薯干、咸菜、香菇干,分别用上述3种蒸馏装置测定样品中的二氧化硫含量,分析测定结果和过程控制.结果:使用3种不同蒸馏仪器测定结果无显著性差异,两次独立测定结果的绝对差值小于算术平均值的10%,回收率均在85%~95%.结论:二氧化硫测定仪自动化程度高,安全性高,基本可以替代传统玻璃蒸馏瓶蒸馏,实现大部分食品的批量检测,对于香菇干等蒸馏过程易倒吸食品,可采用自动凯氏定氮仪检测,提高实验的准确性和可靠性.     

A Common Base Answer to the Question “Which Country Is Most Redistributive?”*

We believe that what most authors have in mind when referring to the “most redistributive country” is a tax and transfer schedule that is most redistributive across all pre-tax and transfer income distributions. In order to measure each country's tax and transfer redistribution according to the same baseline, we suggest using the transplant-and-compare method of Dardanoni and Lambert (2002, Journal of Public Economics 86, 99–122) to establish a common base. The redistributive effects of countries’ tax and transfer schedules are illustrated by employing microdata on eight countries from the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS). Of these eight countries, Finland is found to be the most redistributive country, according to the common base method.     

我国中小企业三维差异化特征比较研究

作为推动国民经济增长和促进社会稳定的基础力量,中小企业在市场中扮演着最活跃的经济主体。与大企业相比,中小企业有其鲜明的成长特征,从动态演进视角选取体量规模、生命周期、要素需求三个维度,系统探讨了中小企业的差异化特征。结论显示:体量规模特征反映在个体与群体以及经济板块之间;生命周期特征体现在死亡陷阱和空间格局演变上;要素需求特征会根据阶段创新内容的不同做出适时调整。     

Comparing the spatial and temporal dynamics of urban expansion in Guangzhou and Shenzhen from 1975 to 2015: A case study of pioneer cities in China’s rapid urbanization

The distinct urbanization process of China has attracted worldwide attention because of its impressive speed, massive scale, and policy intervention. However, the interrelationship between urban expansion and government policies is still not well understood. The Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration of China is the first national pioneering urbanization area since the implementation of the policy “Reform and Opening-up” in the late 1970s. Here we compared the spatial and temporal patterns of urbanization in two leading cities of the Pearl River Delta (i.e., Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the provincial capital and the first Special Economic Zone of China, respectively) from 1975 to 2015, using Landsat data integrated with urban growth and landscape metrics analysis, and examined possible footprints of major economic and urbanization policies. Our results illustrated that urban land areas in both Guangzhou and Shenzhen have experienced magnificent annual growth rates at 8.1% and 11%, respectively between 1975 and 2015. On average, Shenzhen witnessed substantially higher urban growth rate than Guangzhou during the past four decades, particularly in the initial period (1978–1990) when the Reform and Opening-up policy was launched and Shenzhen was designated as the first Special Economic Zone in China in the late 1970s. However, the speed of urban expansion in Shenzhen became considerably lower than Guangzhou from 2005 to 2015, subject to physical conditions and a series of urban land use policies. Both cities showed a generally similar dynamics of urban growth forms with leapfrogging as the predominant type of urban growth at first and then edge-expansion while the contribution of infilling in Shenzhen was higher than that in Guangzhou, especially since 2005. The urbanization processes characterized by landscape and urban growth metrics revealed that a diffusion-coalescence-diffusion-coalescence process was identified for Guangzhou, while Shenzhen was generally consistent with the diffusion-coalescence urban growth hypothesis.     

Worktime control and work stress: the moderating effect of self-comparisons and social comparisons

Abstract

Perceived work-related stress has increased notably in recent years, reducing individuals’ well-being and increasing organizations’ and economies’ costs. This study focuses on worktime control as a key approach to reducing work stress, as the extant research on its effects reports inconsistent results. The study argues that comparisons play a major role in how work stress, conceptualized as effort-reward imbalance, occurs. Ordinary least squares is used to test hypotheses with a sample of 1721 employees from Germany to determine whether employees’ prior worktime control and employees’ referents’ worktime control affect the relationship between worktime control and work stress. Results show that (1) worktime control is negatively associated with the experience of work stress, (2) employees’ prior worktime control moderates the relationship between worktime control and work stress, and (3) there is no moderating effect of employees’ referents’ worktime control. The results are discussed in light of gift-exchange theory and related empirical findings.     

进口贸易视域下国际粮价对国内粮价的传导路径--来自玉米和大豆的证据

基于玉米和大豆等粮食国际、国内价格历史数据,运用协整及误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数等方法,揭示国际粮价对国内粮价的传导作用及影响路径。理论分析表明,国际粮价通过进口直接路径、进口产品成本路径和进口替代路径等三个子路径传导至国内粮价。实证检验发现,国际大豆价格进口直接路径和进口产品成本路径传导均比较充分,即国际大豆价格会影响大豆进口价格,进而影响国内大豆价格,最终影响国内豆油价格;国际玉米价格进口直接路径和进口产品成本路径传导则不充分,国际玉米价格会影响玉米进口价格,但是对国内玉米价格和国内玉米淀粉价格影响程度较低;而在进口替代路径中,玉米和大豆的国际价格传导均不充分。我国应继续推进以提质增效为目标的农业供给侧结构性改革,加大粮食生产科技投入力度,调动农民种粮积极性,集中力量提高粮食供给质量和效率;坚持粮食进口仅为调剂国内供求余缺的方针,把握粮食安全的主动权;建立健全粮食市场的价格调控体系及风险防控体系,规避国际粮食市场剧烈波动对国内粮食市场的影响。     

How a Firm's Domestic Footprint and Domestic Environmental Uncertainties Jointly Shape Added Cultural Distances: The Roles of Resource Dependence and Headquarters Attention

Even though many firms conduct most of their business domestically, international management research has remained remarkably silent on the role of a firm's domestic footprint in its internationalization strategy. We shed light on that role by exploring how the size of a firm's domestic footprint influences the cultural distance that the firm adds to its country portfolio when expanding internationally. Integrating resource dependence theory and the attention‐based view, we hypothesize that a firm's domestic footprint has a negative relationship with added cultural distance (ACD), and that domestic policy uncertainty strengthens this relationship whereas domestic demand uncertainty weakens it. We find robust support for our hypotheses in a sample of the world's largest retailers covering the period 2000–07, indicating that a firm's domestic footprint and domestic environmental uncertainties jointly shape cross‐cultural expansion strategies. Our findings suggest that ACDs reflect headquarters executives' desire to avoid ineffective foreign expansions, hinting at possible biases in studies of the performance effects of distance.     

Observation of other's preferential treatment as a constructive catalyst for improved repatronize intentions

Observing others receive preferential treatment has been found to provoke bystanders' negative reactions. However, seeing others treated better may also inspire bystanders to increase their repatronize intentions. Drawing upon theories of social comparison and goal-setting, this study investigates the condition when watching another's preferential treatment acts as a catalyst to enhance bystanders' repatronize intentions and the mechanism by which the constructive effect appears. The results indicate that when bystanders witness similar others' preferential treatment and believe that they can attain comparable treatment, their goal-setting motivation is more activated and consequently they are more committed to goal-relevant behavior (i.e., repatronize intentions).